San Ramon Market Update Nov 2009 - It’s Getting Tight

The San Ramon real estate market in November saw a significant drop in pending single family home sales and a less dramatic but significant decline in listed single family homes. Pending single family homes fell 45% in November to 43, from October’s 79. October’s increase appears to be an aberration, as pending sales in November resumed the decline they have been on since July. The inventory of single family homes fell for the eight consecutive month to 76, from 86 in October, a 12% drop. Those 76 homes represented approximately 1.75 months of inventory. Here is a table showing the activity over the past 12 months.

All San Ramon Single Family Homes
Inventory Vs Pending Sales Nov 2009

Single family homes priced less than $1 million made up about 2/3 of all homes for sale in San Ramon as of the end of November. Pending sales of single family homes in this segment were cut by more than half, from 72 at the end of October to 35 at the end of November. Inventory also fell, from 60 in October to 51 at the end of November.

San Ramon Single Family Homes Under $1 Million
Inventory Vs Pending Sales Nov 2009

Activity in the over $1 million segment stayed the course from October. There were 25 homes in this segment listed at the end of November, compared to 26 at month end October. That represents about four months of inventory. Pending sales increase by one to eight at the end of November.

San Ramon Single Family Homes Over $1 Million
Inventory Vs Pending Sales Nov 2009

As I speculated might happen last month, the declining inventory of homes for sale in San Ramon began to affect sales, which took a big hit in November. Inventory is likely to remain tight for a while, perhaps until spring or beyond. The continuation and expansion of the first time buyer tax credit and low interest rates are likely to keep demand up. Are price increases far behind? There really is no other way to go if inventory continues to shrink and demand is high.